MexECON Blog

April Retail Sales Fall Modestly

Mexican retail sales fell by a seasonally-adjusted 0.3% during April, after unrevised increases of 0.2% in March, 0.5% in February, and 2.1% in January.  On an unadjusted, constant-price basis, sales in April were up a healthy 4.6% from the same month one year earlier.  The retail subsectors posting the best year-over-year sales gains in April were on-line and catalogs; healthcare; and recreational, paper, and personal products.

At the wholesale level, April sales rose 1.0%, after a revised gain of 0.9% in March.  Wholesale sales in Mexico have now risen for seven straight months, and receipts in April were up 4.7% year-over-year.

The report was released today by INEGI, the official statistics agency.

Comment:  The small pullback in retail demand during April does not seem too worrying.  The steep drop in Mexican unemployment since last summer still seems to be buoying consumer spending.  Indeed, with the improvement in the labor market and the recent signs of reacceleration in other sectors of the Mexican economy, I suspect that consumer demand can keep rising at a good pace.  That should allow the overall economy to keep growing moderately in the near term, though there is still some downside risk from the situation in Greece and the likelihood of higher U.S. interest rates later this summer.

Patrick Fearon, CFA
Portfolio Manager

Retail Sales 1504

Wholesale Sales 1504

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