MexECON Blog

October Retail Sales Fall 0.1 Percent

Mexican retail sales fell in October by a seasonally-adjusted 0.1%, after a decrease of 0.7% in September.  That marked the first back-to-back sales declines since the summer of 2011.  Nevertheless, sales were still much stronger than in the same month one year earlier.  On an unadjusted, constant-price basis, sales in October were up 5.6% year-over-year.  The retail subsectors posting year-over-year sales increases in October were on-line and catalogs; recreational, paper, and personal products; food, beverages, and tobacco; home décor, domestic appliances, and computers; motor vehicles, fuels, and lubricants; department stores; clothing, footwear, and textile goods; and metal and glass products.  The only retail subsector to post a year-over-year sales decline was healthcare.

At the wholesale level, sales rose 0.8% in October, almost offsetting the revised declines of 0.8% in September and 0.1% in August.  Sales at the wholesale level were up 1.0% year-over-year.

Comment:  The two straight months of retail sales declines during the autumn bear watching, but I would not be too alarmed just yet.  As I mentioned after the sales report last month, consumers may simply be taking a breather from their summer shopping spree, and some may be holding back on purchases in anticipation of the big holiday sales starting later.  The overall trend still seems to be upward.  Moreover, a modest firming in the labor market and the recent decline in energy prices is likely to prompt improved consumer confidence and increased consumption demand in the coming months.

Patrick Fearon, CFA
Vice President, Fund Management

Retail Sales 1410

Wholesale Sales 1410

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