MexECON Blog

June Retail Sales Rebound Strongly

Mexican retail sales jumped by a seasonally-adjusted 1.8% in June, rebounding strongly from their revised 0.1% decline in May and marking their best monthly increase since last November.  Without seasonal adjustments, but stripping out price changes, sales in June were up 5.6% from the same month one year earlier.  The retail subsectors posting the best year-over-year increases in June were paper and personal products; clothing and footwear; food and beverages; department stores; and metal and glass products.  The report was released today by INEGI, the official statistics agency.

Comment:  The rebound in June retail activity is consistent with other recent data that suggests Mexico is already rebounding from the soft spot it hit during the spring, when the European debt crisis flared once again and U.S. economic growth began to slow.  Other recent upside surprises have included a jump in industrial production during June and a surge in consumer confidence in July.  The problems abroad still have the potential to trip up Mexico, but for the moment, the country is cruising on the strength of both rising exports and healthy domestic demand.

Patrick Fearon, CFA
Vice President, Fund Management

                                              Mexican Retail Sales
                                        Seasonally Adjusted, 2003 = 100
                                                    Source:  INEGI
Retail Sales 1206

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