MexECON Blog

March Leading Index Rises to 100.7

Mexico's March index of leading economic indicators rose to 100.7, up from 100.5 in February and 100.3 in January.  The index has now risen for four straight months, and it stands at its highest level since May 2011.  The rise in March came from increases in four of the six subindexes.  The biggest increase came in the subindex on U.S. stock prices, which rose for a fifth straight month, reaching a level of 101.1.  The subindex on non-petroleum exports rose for a fourth straight month to 100.9, and the subindex on manufacturing employment rose for a sixth straight month to 100.8.  The subindex on Mexican stock prices rose to 99.9.  The subindex on interest rates was unchanged, and the subindex on the inflation-adjusted exchange rate fell slightly.  The report was released on Monday by INEGI, the official statistics agency.

Comment:  Mexico's leading index is designed so that readings of 100 are consistent with the economy growing at its long-run tendency in the coming months.  When the index is above 100 and rising, as it is now, it points to accelerating growth.  Recent data suggest the reacceleration stems in large part from renewed vigor in Mexican exports and big gains in consumer optimism and spending.  While softer U.S. economic growth and uncertainty about the European debt crisis are risks, the near-term prospects for Mexico remain unusually strong.

Patrick Fearon, CFA
Vice President, Fund Management

Leading Index 1203

0 comment(s) for “March Leading Index Rises to 100.7”

    Leave a Comment