MexECON Blog

April Consumer Confidence Jumps

Mexico's April consumer confidence index jumped a seasonally-adjusted 2.3%, after a revised increase of 0.9% in March and a revised decline of 0.6% in February.  According to the report, released Friday by the official statistics agency INEGI, the increase in April came in large part from a surge in the subindex on consumers' willingness to buy durable goods.  That subindex jumped 12.1%, marking its strongest increase in almost two years.  The subindex on consumers' expectations for the overall Mexican economy jumped 2.7%, after rising 2.4% in March, and the subindex on consumers' view of the current situation of their own family rose 1.9%, reversing a modest decline in the previous month.  The subindexes on consumers' view of the country's current situation and their expectations for their own family also posted good gains.

Comment:  Reaccelerating exports and gradually declining unemployment are apparently still boosting consumer optimism in Mexico.  The recent softening of U.S. economic activity is a risk, but for now, it does not look serious enough to derail the Mexican growth trajectory.  Moreover, recent data has suggested Mexican inflation may be starting to cool.  There is still some danger that consumer prices could rise faster to make up for higher costs at the producer level, which would undermine confidence and spending, but the jury is still out on that question.  In sum, Mexican consumer confidence and spending are likely to keep improving in the near term, providing good support for Mexican economic growth.

Patrick Fearon, CFA
Vice President, Fund Management

                                        Mexican Consumer Confidence
                                 Seasonally Adjusted, January 2003 = 100
                                                     Source:  INEGI
Consumer Confidence 1204

0 comment(s) for “April Consumer Confidence Jumps”

    Leave a Comment