MexECON Blog

February Consumer Confidence Rises

Mexico's February consumer confidence index rose by a seasonally-adjusted 1.6%, after a revised increase of 1.3% in January.  According to the report, from the official statistics agency INEGI, the rise in optimism during February came in large part from a surge in the survey respondents' view of the current economic situation in the country as a whole.  In addition, the surveyed consumers reported a fifth straight monthly rise in their willingness to buy durable goods, as well as modest improvements in their future expectations for their own family and for the country as a whole.  The only significant negative in the report was a drop in the respondents' view of the current situation of their own family.

Comment:  The second straight monthly rise in consumer confidence during February is consistent with recent economic indicators out of Mexico.  For example, reports this week showed exports reaccelerating and unemployment falling back in January.  The rebound in optimism is important because it suggests Mexican consumers will keep increasing their buying, thereby giving the country's current economic recovery one more leg to stand on after export growth.  There have also been some signs of domestic investment starting to rise, but that dynamic has not been very strong so far.  In sum, the Mexican economic rebound remains firmly in place and is showing every sign of becoming self-sustaining.  While Mexico faces important economic challenges in the medium and long terms - such as the need to increase competitiveness in the economy and ensure that growth remains strong - the near-term outlook remains rosy. 

Patrick Fearon, CFA
Vice President, Fund Management

                           Mexican Consumer Confidence
                   Seasonally Adjusted, January 2003 = 100
                                         Source:  INEGI
Consumer Confidence 1102

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