MexECON Blog

December Retail Sales Rise 2.6 Percent YOY

In a new report from INEGI, the official statistics agency, Mexico's December retail sales rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.7%.  Sales in the previous two months were revised upward to show a modest decline of just 0.2% in November and a rise of 0.5% in October.  Without seasonal adjustments, but stripping out the impact of price increases, sales in December were up 2.6% from the same month one year earlier, accelerating from a year-over-year gain of 2.4% in November.  The retail subsectors posting year-over-year sales gains in December were textiles and clothing accessories; metal and glass products; paper products, motor vehicles, fuels, and lubricants; department stores; food and beverages; and healthcare.

Comment:  While retail sales in Mexico have been choppy over the last year or more, they have been generally rising, and it now appears that Mexican consumer spending is on a sustained, though modest, upward trend.  Among the positive indicators for sales, Mexican unemployment fell back in December, while consumer confidence rose in January after two straight months of declines.  Mexican consumer spending looks likely to keep growing as long as there is not a major, unexpected shock, such as a further dramatic surge in the value of the peso that weighs on exports and reduces hiring.

Patrick Fearon, CFA
Vice President, Fund Management

                                        Mexican Retail Sales
                             Seasonally Adjusted, 2003 = 100
                                             Source:  INEGI
Retail Sales 1012

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