MexECON Blog

Finance Minister Sees Stronger Growth

Finance Minister Ernesto Cordero said in an interview on Tuesday that Mexico's gross domestic product (GDP) will likely grow faster in 2010 than the current official forecast of 4.1%.  "I agree with all the analysts that we're going to grow between 4.5% and probably a little more than 5.0%," Cordero said.  In support of his view, Cordero pointed to recent strong data on Mexican industrial production, manufacturing, and domestic demand.

Comment:  The finance minister's increased optimism on economic growth appears well founded, given Mexico's recent strong rebound in exports, industrial activity, and employment.  Mexican GDP in the first quarter was up 4.3% from the same period one year earlier.  If data for the second quarter are equally strong, the probability is even better that Cordero's new forecast for the year will be met.  The initial report for the second quarter is due out in mid-August. 

Patrick Fearon, CFA
Vice President, Fund Management

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