MexECON Blog

February Industrial Output Rises 4.4 Percent YOY

Mexico's industrial production in February was up 4.4% from the same month one year earlier.  That marked the third straight month of year-on-year gains, and it reflected an acceleration from the revised increases of 3.5% in January and 1.6% in December.  According to the report (from the national statistics agency INEGI), Mexican industrial output had fallen on a year-over-year basis for 19 straight months prior to the recent upturn.  The report showed that the year-over-year rise in production in February came primarily from an 8.8% jump in manufacturing output.  The rise in factory production included big increases in autos, metals, chemicals, and computer and communications equipment.  Meanwhile, mining output was up 2.3% year-over year.  Within that category, petroleum production fell 1.0%, but the decline was offset by a 17.2% increase in non-petroleum output.  Finally, utility production was up 2.1% year-over-year, and construction activity was down 4.7%.

Comment:  On a monthly, seasonally adjusted basis, Mexico's industrial output has grown in six of the last eight months.  The recovery has come in large part from increased U.S. demand.  If the U.S. recovery fails to broaden, the current restocking north of the border could peter out, and Mexican exports and production could slow again.  However, recent U.S. indicators are making the prospects look better.

Patrick Fearon, CFA
Vice President, Fund Management

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